02.07.2018 16:00 Dr. Nils Detering (UCSB):
An Integrated Model of Fire Sales and Default Contagion in Financial SystemsB 349 (Theresienstr. 39, 80333 München)

In (Detering et. al, 2016) and (Detering et. al, 2018) we developed a random graph model for 'default contagion' in financial networks and using 'law of large numbers' effects we were able to compute the size of the final default cluster induced by an arbitrarily given initial shock in a large system. Further, we were able to derive sufficient and necessary criteria for resilience of a system to small shocks. In that sense our model provides better insights than the popular Eisenberg-Noe model which is concerned with existence and uniqueness of a clearing vector (and hence the final state of the system) but gives no indication of favorable network structures and sufficient capital requirements to ensure resilience. The Eisenberg-Noe model, however, has proven to be flexible enough to be extended by contagion channels other than default contagion, the most important being 'fire sales' which describes contagion effects due to falling asset prices as institutions sell off their assets.

In this article, we first propose a model for fire sales that uses an Eisenberg-Noe like description for finite networks but allows to describe the final state of the system (size of the default cluster and final price impact) asymptotically. In particular, we are able to provide sufficient capital requirements that ensure resilience of the system. Furthermore, we integrate the channel of default contagion into our model applying results from (Detering et. al, 2018) and extending them to the non-continuous case induced by the fire sales. Finally, for this integrated setting, we provide criteria that determine whether a certain financial system is resilient or prone to small initial shocks and furthermore give sufficient capital requirements for financial systems to be resilient.

This is joint work with Thilo Meyer-Brandis, Konstantinos Panagiotou and Daniel Ritter