02.12.2020 13:00 Göran Kauermann (LMU):
Nowcasting and Forecasting using COVID-19 data(using Zoom, see http://go.tum.de/410163 for more details) (Parkring 11, 85748 Garching)

We analyse the temporal and regional structure in COVID-19 infections, making use of the openly available data on registered cases in Germany published by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) on a daily basis. We demonstrate the necessity to apply nowcasting to cope with delayed reporting. Delayed reporting occurs because local health authorities report infections with delay due to delayed test results, delayed reporting chains or other issues not controllable by the RKI. A reporting delay also occurs for fatal cases, where the decease occurs after the infection (unless post-mortem tests are applied). The talk gives a general discussion on nowcasting and applies this in two settings. First, we derive an estimate for the number of present-day infections that will, at a later date, prove to be fatal. Our district-level modelling approach allows to disentangle spatial variation into a global pattern for Germany, district-specific long-term effects and short-term dynamics, taking the demographic composition of the local population into account. Joint work with Marc Schneble, Giacomo De Nicola & Ursula Berger The second applications combines nowcasting with forecasting of infection numbers. This leads to a fore-nowcast, which is motivated methodologically. The method is suitable for all data which are reported with delay and we demonstrate the usability on COVID-19 infections.