28.04.2025 15:00 Jakob Deser:
"Influence of fast chaotic forcing and noise on transitions in bistable systems and their applications in climate science"MI 03.06.011 (Boltzmannstr. 3, 85748 Garching)

dentifying the relevant time scales is a key step in modelling complex dynamics such as earth system components. If there are important dependencies on faster time-scale dynamics when analysing slow processes, a common approach also known as Hasselmann's program [K. Hasselmann, 1976] is to model fast chaotic influences via stochastic perturbations, as this reduces computational complexity enormously compared to integrating those fast dynamics explicitly. Apart from that, SDEs also provide us with their own tools for analysis, such as Kramers' Law, which describes transitions between different equilibria of the drift. We are able to transfer this result to the limiting chaotic case and to describe the boundaries of the validity in this case. We conclude by applying these results to a low-dimensional model of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and investigate implications on a possible tipping of this ocean current.